Deaths from drug overdoses rose sharply in the first nine months of 2016, the government reported Tuesday, releasing data that confirm the widely held belief that the opioid epidemic worsened last year despite stepped-up efforts by public health authorities.
The National Center for Health Statistics reported that overdose deaths reached a record 19.9 per 100,000 population in the third quarter, a big increase over the 16.7 recorded for the same three months in 2015. Similarly, the first two quarters of last year showed death rates of 18.9 and 19.3, far greater than the corresponding periods for 2015. Data for the fourth quarter of 2016 are not yet available.
The government’s annual drug death statistics typically lag by about a year; the latest official information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows the 2015 drug overdose rate at 16.3 per 100,000 people, for a total of 52,404 fatal overdoses. Given available state data and anecdotal information, many experts are expecting a big increase in deaths in 2016, driven by the worsening crisis in overdoses from opioids, especially fentanyl and heroin. About six in 10 drug overdose deaths are caused by opioids.
In June, the New York Times predicted that the number of overdose deaths would exceed 60,000 in 2016, based on data it compiled from hundreds of state health departments and county coroners and medical examiners. If true, that number would mark the sharpest annual increase ever recorded. The death rate released by the National Center for Health Statistics for the 12 months ending last September would equate to 59,520 deaths.
The drug overdose numbers are part of a report that looked at mortality rates from leading causes of death. The data show that the overall U.S. death rate fell slightly in 2016, with top killers such as heart disease and cancer remaining stable. The estimates in the report are adjusted for age and considered “provisional,” so they may change slightly as states continue investigating the causes of a small number of cases.