We get it. The NFL can try your patience and even drive you away while you watch a presidential election unfold. But you came back and now you’re here for good or at least through the first Sunday in February.
(Sorry not sorry, Pro Bowl.)
That’s because, for every greedy owner and awful officiating error, the NFL gets its playoffs right. In fact, the system is practically perfect. There really isn’t a game you should skip in the first weekend of games as 12 teams are whittled to eight, but, in case that’s too big a time commitment, here’s a quick power ranking, along with the usual proviso that the game deemed the worst inevitably turns out to be the best.
4. Oakland at Houston (4:35 p.m. today, ESPN/ABC). Teams that get into the wild-card round usually can tell a tale about injuries and several of the teams in this year’s opening round know this all too well. Quick. Name the starting quarterbacks in the first game of the weekend. (Answer: Connor Cook and Brock Osweiler.) The Raiders will be going with Cook after their season of destiny became a dumpster fire when MVP candidate Derek Carr broke his leg and backup Matt McGloin suffered a concussion. Over on the Texans’ side, Osweiler has failed to live up to the expectations of his gargantuan contract, but don’t read too much into his heated sideline exchange with coach Bill O’Brien last week. O’Brien has been known to do that with quarterbacks.
The Texans have had a devastating injury of their own, losing J.J. Watt after three games. Still, they have the league’s best defense. That and playing in the less-than-competitive AFC South, where they edged the Tennessee Titans for the title, helped compensate for an offense that is ranked 29th. The Raiders may have a 12-4 record but are 3-2 in their last five games.
These two teams played Nov. 22 in Mexico City, with the Raiders winning, 27-20.
3. Miami at Pittsburgh (1:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS). For a change of pace, the injured quarterback we’re talking about in this game isn’t Ben Roethlisberger. It’s Ryan Tannehill, who suffered a knee injury Dec. 11. Although Tannehill has been throwing the football around, Matt Moore is expected to start his fourth consecutive game unless, as coach Adam Gase put it Wednesday, “something changes drastically in the next two or three days.” He’s just being sly. Expect Moore to take his first playoff snap in his ninth season in the league.
On offense, the Dolphins will have Jay Ajayi, one of four players in NFL history with three games of more than 200 yards rushing in a single season (the others are Earl Campbell, O.J. Simpson and Tiki Barber). Wide receiver Jarvis Landry led the team with 94 catches for 1,136 yards and, since he entered the league in 2014, he has caught 288 passes, tying Odell Beckham Jr. for the most by a player in his first three seasons. Wide receiver Kenny Stills led the team with nine touchdown catches.
On defense, well, there’s Ndamukong Suh, who had 2½ sacks and two tackles for loss in two postseason games with Detroit
And his fellow defensive end, Cameron Wake, is tied for third in the NFL this season with five forced fumbles and is third in the AFC with 11½ sacks.
Remember how Roethlisberger was carted off in the wild 2016 first-round game against Cincinnati with a shoulder injury and returned to lead the team to a victory, helped mightily by the Bengals’ discombobulation? Roethlisberger couldn’t even throw the ball down the field but managed to Willis Reed the Steelers to a win. This year, he’s healthy and has dangerous weapons. The Dolphins may be appearing in the postseason for the first time since 2008, but the Steelers seemingly have been here every year since the dawn of time. This year, there’s a new face at running back, where Le’Veon Bell will make his playoff debut after missing the last two playoff appearances because of injuries.
Defensively, the ageless James Harrison remains a formidable presence, but linebacker Lawrence Timmons has had four seasons with 100 or more tackles, two or more sacks and two or more interceptions. Cornerback Artie Burns tied for first among NFL rookies with three interceptions.
2. Detroit at Seattle (8:15 p.m. today, NBC). Yes, we know that this is a Saturday night, when everyone with a social life is out howling, but bear with us.
No one really wants to go to Seattle, even if the team has lost Earl Thomas on defense. The Seahawks are appearing in the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season and hope to advance to their third Super Bowl in four years. They’ve won six of their last eight postseason games and quarterback Russell Wilson is 7-3 in 10 career postseason starts, passing for 16 touchdowns. In his last six playoff games, Doug Baldwin has caught four touchdown passes.
On defense, Richard Sherman has 30 career interceptions and two in his last two home playoff games. Safety Kam Chancellor has three postseason interceptions, including one of 90-yard touchdown return against Cam Newton in 2015. Seattle won four of its last five meetings with Detroit, which has gone to the playoffs twice in the last three seasons.
It would be wise to hang with this game into the fourth quarter, especially if the Lions are trailing. Or maybe just make sure you’re in front of a TV somewhere in the fourth quarter. Detroit has won eight times after trailing in the fourth quarter or overtime. Quarterback Matthew Stafford led the team in those eight wins, the most by a quarterback in a single season since 1970. Stafford has passed for better than 4,000 yards for six consecutive seasons.
1. New York Giants at Green Bay (4:40 p.m. Sunday, Fox). Congrats, Packers. You get to host a wild-card team in your playoff opener. Condolences, Packers, it’s the Giants. Gulp.
Had you lost the NFC North division title last Sunday, you could have gone on the road, but noooo, you had to win. Sure, Lambeau is Hoth-like in its January, but you have to play the Giants. You know, the team that is 5-0 in its last five playoff road games, two of which came at — gah — Lambeau Field in 2007 and 2011 when the Giants went on to win Super Bowls. Before 2007, the Packers had lost two playoff games ever at home, dating from 1939. So, let’s say that recent history has had its unkind moments.
The good news is that the weather forecast calls for a high of 29 degrees in Green Bay, Wis., on Monday. The game, unfortunately, is on Sunday, when the high is forecast to be 15, with a low of 6. There’s no precipitation in the forecast, though, so the teams have that going for them.
This Giants playoff team bears little resemblance to the other two. Eli Manning may still be the quarterback, but Ben McAdoo, a Packers assistant during those earlier playoff games, has replaced Tom Coughlin. The only other remaining Giants are Jason Pierre-Paul and Zak DeOssie, both of whom are injured, and Mark Herzlich, Will Beatty and Victor Cruz. The last three have reduced roles.
As for Aaron Rodgers, what can you say? He predicted the Packers would run the table after a 42-14 loss to the Redskins and all the team did was go 6-0. With that, Rodgers dropped the mic, preferring not to do any more predicting. As he goes, so will the team.