Washington
For more than two decades, Republican and Democratic administrations have tried carrots and sticks to steer North Korea away from nuclear weapons. Each has failed. And as Trump prepares to take office on Jan. 20, the stakes are rising.
Pyongyang may already be able to arm short-range and mid-range missiles with atomic warheads, threatening U.S. allies South Korea and Japan, and American forces in each country. On Sunday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said preparations for launching an intercontinental ballistic missile “reached the final stage.”
Some experts believe the North is likely to have the capability to strike the U.S. mainland before Trump’s four-year term is up.
Some of his options:
In June, Trump called for dialogue with North Korea and suggested a talk with Kim over a hamburger.
If only talking with the secretive, hereditary rulers in Pyongyang were so simple. No sitting U.S. president has ever done so.
Three U.S. administrations, going back to President Bill Clinton, have persuaded the North to disarm in exchange for aid. Each effort eventually failed, and there is deep skepticism in Congress about trying again.
International sanctions have tightened since North Korea conducted its first of five nuclear tests in 2006. But the country has adeptly circumvented restrictions on sensitive technology and money flows, and used its own capabilities to develop weapons.
Additional U.S. sanctions, beefed up last year, punish foreign companies and banks dealing with North Korea.
China’s role is critical. It dominates trade with the North and has resisted sanctions that could destabilize Pyongyang, fearing the possibility of a U.S.-allied, unified Korea emerging.
The last several U.S. administrations entered office determined to break Beijing’s partnership with Pyongyang. None succeeded.
Using military force against North Korea is extremely risky.
Even before it developed nuclear weapons, the North maintained the ability to strike Seoul, South Korea’s capital, with a potentially devastating artillery barrage. Although doing so would invite a blistering U.S. response, it’s hardly a scenario any American commander-in-chief wants to contemplate.
A military strike would be harder to pull off now. North Korea has expanded its nuclear and missile programs significantly, meaning more targets would have to be hit.
