Outside of Donald Trump, the biggest winner in the 2016 elections was quite possibly the legalization of marijuana, which was on the ballot in nine states and approved in all but one, Arizona. Montana, North Dakota, Arkansas and Florida approved marijuana use for certain medical conditions, while Maine, Nevada, Massachusetts and California legalized recreational marijuana use and sales for anyone 21 or older. Medical use of the drug will now be allowed in 29 states plus the District of Columbia. And roughly 20 percent of the population now lives in a state where marijuana use by adults has been legalized.

According to Vermont Public Radio, this outcome, especially in two neighboring states, is encouraging Vermont lawmakers to renew the push to legalize marijuana in the Green Mountain State, an effort that failed last year in the Legislature despite the support of Gov. Peter Shumlin, a Democrat. Sen. Dick Sears, D-Bennington County, says the Massachusetts vote in particular is a game-changer, because residents of southern Vermont will effectively gain access to legal marijuana in that state in 2018 without a regulatory or tax structure existing in their home state. He has a point, but if that train has not already left the station, it probably ought to be shunted off to a siding for the time being.  

Shumlin is going to be replaced next year by Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican who appears decidedly cooler to the prospect of marijuana legalization than his predecessor, although he says he is keeping an open mind. In any case, it certainly does not seem to be a priority for the incoming governor, who wants to keep the focus on the economy and affordability.

And then there is the considerable uncertainty created by the election of this month’s other big winner, Trump. During the campaign, he indicated he viewed the issue as one best left to the states, although his support for medical marijuana seemed firmer than for outright legalization. However, his choice for attorney general, Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, said as recently as April that, “We need grown-ups in Washington to say marijuana is not the kind of thing that ought to be legalized, it ought not to be minimized, that it is in fact a very real danger.” He went on to assert that “good people don’t smoke marijuana.”

This is a decidedly retrograde attitude in 2016 America, but given that marijuana is still illegal under federal law and that Sessions will be supervising federal prosecutors and the Drug Enforcement Administration, there is legitimate concern that a Trump administration might reverse the policy pursued by President Obama, which is basically to allow states to proceed on their own course as long as appropriate regulatory mechanisms are in place.

Reversing course might prove politically difficult for Trump, given that legal marijuana sales are now a $5.4 billion a year industry and polls suggest that 60 percent of Americans support legalization. But until that uncertainty is removed, it makes little sense for Vermont lawmakers to devote extensive time and effort to trying to perfect a regulatory and tax structure that might be unraveled at the stroke of a pen, especially since possession of small amounts of the drug has already been decriminalized in Vermont and medical marijuana is already legal there. By next fall, the national and regional picture should be much clearer, and provide a sounder basis for making a decision.