Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is returning to New Hampshire for a speech this evening at the Laconia Middle School gymnasium.
His repeated presence in the state indicates that the Granite State may, in fact, still be in play in the November election, especially given Hillary Clinton’s recent stumble in calling up to half of Trump supporters “a basket of deplorables.”
Clinton’s lead in New Hampshire polls has narrowed in recent days to an average of just 5 percentage points, according to Real Clear Politics, meaning she can’t take the state for granted.
Linda Fowler, a Dartmouth College professor of government, said Trump has “such a narrow path to victory” because Clinton has about 244 of the 270 electoral college votes all but locked up already, and so the New York developer has to “be letter perfect in almost any contested state.”
“He can’t afford to ignore any of the states in play, and that’s a huge hurdle for him,” Fowler said. “I think his situation is better than it was, but he can’t afford to lose New Hampshire.”
Trump, of course, won New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary and some of those same voters, who are angry with Washington incumbents, may have helped first-term state Rep. Frank Edelblut, R-Wilton, to his surprisingly strong showing in Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary. Edelblut narrowly lost to Executive Councilor Chris Sununu, and Fowler said GOP voters disappointed with Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte may have “vented their anger in the gubernatorial race.”
“This is a low-turnout election, and whenever you have a low-turnout election, an intense constituency carries disproportionate weight, and I think there are a lot of angry conservatives within the party” who voted for Edelblut, she said.
The fact that Sununu will now face off against fellow Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, D-Concord, may be setting the stage for a bit of New Hampshire political history involving a relic of the Colonial era.
Lebanon resident Carl Porter, a former city historian and political buff, this week noted that “… no matter who wins in November, history will be made in New Hampshire. In the history of the state, there have been no candidates that have moved directly from the Executive Council to governor’s office. There have been some who have served previously on the Council, but no one has ever made the direct progression.”
One race has been settled, and one requires a recount. That’s the word regarding two contested primaries for New Hampshire Senate districts representing the Upper Valley.
Only nine votes separate the two Republican candidates in Senate District 8 in the race to replace Weare Republican Jerry Little, who is now the banking commissioner.
On Tuesday, Stoddard Republican Ruth Ward won 2,619 votes, while Lempster Republican Jim Beard tallied 2,610. Beard on Wednesday said he has asked the Secretary of State’s Office to conduct a recount.
“There’s no question nine votes is a very small number, and it’s just a reasonable thing to do,” said Beard, who is chairman of the Lempster Conservation Commission and library trustees but is making his first run for political office.
The winner will face New London Democrat John Garvey, a law professor at University of New Hampshire School of Law. The district includes the Upper Valley towns of New London, Newport, Croydon, Sunapee, Grantham, Springfield and Unity.
Meanwhile, in the Senate District 2 race to replace state Sen. Jeanie Forrester, R-Meredith, Warren Republican Bob Giuda sealed his victory over state Rep. Brian Gallagher, R-Sanbornton.
With all but one small town reporting, Giuda had 54 percent support to 46 percent for Gallagher. Democrat Charlie Chandler, an attorney from Warren, was unopposed in his primary for the Haverhill-area district.
The campaign of Vermont Democratic gubernatorial candidate Sue Minter is trying to make a little hay out of the Tunbridge World’s Fair, which opens today. Minter plans to appear there this morning on WDEV radio, traditionally a debate stop on the gubernatorial campaign. Republican Phil Scott has agreed to 11 debates before November, but wants Liberty Union candidate Bill Lee, the former Red Sox pitcher, to also be included.
William Petit, the 1978 Dartmouth College alumnus whose wife and two daughters were brutally murdered in a 2007 home invasion in Connecticut, is running for the state Senate there. The retired physician, who has remarried and has a newborn son, is a Republican.
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry appeared Monday night on ABC’s Dancing With the Stars, and “spun and sauntered about his pro dance partner Emma Slater to the country hit God Blessed Texas by Little Texas,” according to the San Antonio Express News. They finished with 20 points out of 40 from the judges, the lowest score of the night.
u
John Gregg can be reached at jgregg@vnews.com.