In eight days, we should finally know which party will control the Senate for the new president’s term.
Oh, wait just kidding. That battle could conceivably drag on for another year.
If Hillary Clinton and Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., were to win the White House, it’s more likely than not that Democrats would win control of the Senate, too. But there’s a good chance that if that happened, they could hold a slim one-seat majority. And pretty much immediately after that, they’d have to defend Kaine’s open Senate seat, since his departure to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. would set off a cascade of political dominoes in Virginia that could give Republicans another chance to take back control of the Senate.
Both sides would have to act quick, since the battle for this Virginia Senate seat — and possibly the Senate — will take place over two expensive, high-profile races in two years.
Because this could all matter a lot in a few months, let’s run down how the political dominoes to replace Kaine could fall, in three steps:
1. 2016: The governor chooses who replaces him
Some time after Election Day, Gov. Terry McAuliffe, D, will appoint someone to fill Kaine’s seat. Because McAuliffe is a Democrat, he’s going to appoint a Democrat (a fact that likely did not go unnoticed by Team Clinton when she picked Kaine). McAuliffe could go one of three routes:
Appoint someone who promises not to run for office after the term ends in 2018, and put off this whole fight until then. But that means the Democratic candidate would lose the advantage of incumbency. So McAuliffe also could:
Appoint someone who could make history, like the first black senator from Virginia since the 19th century. One of the favorites is U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, D, of the Richmond area.
2. 2017: Virginia voters get to choose
Either way, McAuliffe is going to appoint a Democrat. Which brings us to the next step in our process: A November 2017 special election, where Virginia voters would get to say who should replace Kaine. This is where things could get rough and tumble between Republicans and Democrats in Washington.
The Virginia Senate special election will be the only U.S. Senate race in 2017, and it could draw a lot of outside attention, especially if the national election seven days from now gives Democrats a slim, one-seat majority over Republicans. (It’s a distinct possibility: If Kaine is vice president, he’ll serve as the Senate president. So Democrats would need net four seats to take back control of the Senate. They have a real chance in five to seven.)
The Virginia Democrat McAuliffe appoints will have the advantage of incumbency. But the dynamics of this special election could favor Republicans. And there are plenty of talented, well-connected Republicans who will jump at the chance for a rare opening in the U.S. Senate.
Among them is Rep. Barbara Comstock, R. Assuming she wins re-election to her Loudon area congressional seat, she would probably love to avoid having to run a competitive race every two years. Portnoy reports Carly Fiorina’s name is in the mix, too.
If the fate of the Senate is at hand, there will be plenty of outside groups motivated and willing to help a Republican retake the Senate just a year after they lost it. (Virginia is like the Wild West of campaign finance and has no limits on political contributions.)
Plus, off-year elections tend to bring out more Republican voters (older, whiter, less transient).
So, no matter who McAuliffe appoints, it’s likely game-set-match for the winner of the November 2017 Virginia Senate seat.
3. 2018: Virginia voters get to choose (again)
Whoever wins the special election in November 2017 is going to have to turn right back around and do it all over again.
The election for the seat’s full, six-year term is in November 2018, which in election years is basically the next day. That means that in the middle of campaigning and raising tens of millions of dollars (again), this person is going to have to find time to actually do something in the slow-moving Senate to take back home and show for it.
Whoever wants Kaine’s old seat is going to have to work hard for it. It’s entirely possible if Democrats win the Senate Nov. 8, they will have to spend the next two years defending their Senate majority.
So, which party will have control of the Senate for most of the next president’s term? It’s an answer we could have to wait more than a year for. Yay, politics.