The Republican tide that lifted many state and local politicians to victory in the 1994 mid term election ended up sinking a few boats, too.
Yes, GOP challenger Charlie Bass defeated incumbent Democrat Dick Swett in New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional district, and an 11th hour campaign by Republican Ken Anderson swept him into the Grafton County attorney’s office. But where New Hampshire seemed to follow the nation, Vermont, true to form, was a little more erratic, with Bernie Sanders holding on to his House seat over a Republican challenge from Norwich’s own John Carroll, who lost decisively in his hometown, 1,097-461.
“Sometimes, it seemed, voters didn’t want to vote for anyone, perhaps especially for candidates they knew well,” the late Geoffrey Stokes, then a Valley News writer-of-all-trades, observed in an analysis of the Nov. 8, 1994, mid term balloting. For example, Hanover resident Jim Rubens, who won a seat in the New Hampshire Senate that day, lost the vote in his hometown, 1,879-908.
It’s an article of faith, and also evidence, that the president’s party loses seats in the mid terms, especially when there’s an ideological shift underway. The 1994 vote took place only 14 years after the Reagan revolution brought the conservative movement into power.
The tide flowed the other way in 2006, when Democrats seized majorities in reaction to George W. Bush and the Iraq war. Paul Hodes knocked Bass out of the House, part of a Democratic sweep of the Twin States’ three House seats. Peter Welch, a candidate for U.S. Senate in Tuesday’s voting, won a seat in the House; Sanders won election to the Senate. Democrats made huge gains in the New Hampshire Legislature.
“I think voters were saying they want change, they want a new direction,” Hodes said after the results of the Nov. 7, 2006 balloting.
Perhaps. But voters speak more softly in the midterms. While nearly 70% of Vermont’s electorate (still a high-water mark) turned out in 1992, when Bill Clinton made George H.W. Bush a one-term president, only 51.7% turned out in 1994. Turnout was a bit more robust in 2006, at nearly 54%.
And the results aren’t always so predictable, particularly at the state and local levels. In Vermont, Democratic challengers lost their bids for Vermont governor and lieutenant governor in 2006, wave or no wave. The 1994 election saw Gov. Howard Dean, a Democrat, comfortably reelected, and his future Republican opponent, Ruth Dwyer, of Thetford, elected to the state House.
Exactly what the mid terms mean and what kind of mandate the victors can claim can be hard to tease out.
“The message from this is that voters want fair value and quality for their tax dollars,” Rubens said after his 1994 state Senate victory. “The people want government closer to the people. A consensus has now emerged that the growth of government must be stopped and possibly even reversed.”
Possibly. In a recent column, Bloomberg Opinion writer Jonathan Bernstein noted that election spin begins long before the vote counting does. Deciding what an election means requires talking about it, a lot. In the moment, voters decide; eventually, historians do. The rest is a lot of noise and a little signal.
Another wave is predicted for the contest that ends Tuesday. The candidates matter, of course, probably more than the president’s approval ratings or the inflation rate.
“Once the Republican primary went to a candidate (Bass) who wasn’t actively scary, Swett’s days were pretty clearly numbered,” Stokes wrote in 1994.
We should know by Wednesday morning whether any candidates were “actively scary” enough to cause voters to support their opponents.
Alex Hanson can be reached at ahanson@vnews.com or 603-727-3207.
