WEST LEBANON — When the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic forced schools, restaurants and businesses to close in March, many residents across Vermont and New Hampshire began what would become a monthslong period of self-quarantine with little travel.
But nine months into the pandemic, highway safety officials in both states have seen a confounding result: Traffic fatalities this year are on par with previous levels, despite the fact there are far fewer commuters and cars on the road.
“We’re kind of scratching our heads,” said Paul White, the law enforcement liaison for the Vermont State Highway Safety Office. “Traffic volume is down, so why are as many people dying on the roads as a normal year?”
As of Dec. 7, Vermont had recorded 61 traffic fatalities in 2020, which is up significantly from the 48 recorded in all of 2019, though White said the fatalities reported last year were abnormally low. In both 2018 and 2017, the state saw 68 traffic fatalities, according to a tracker on the Vermont Highway Safety Office website.
The same trend is true in New Hampshire, according to Jennifer Tramp, a spokeswoman for the New Hampshire Department of Public Safety. As of Dec. 7, the Granite State had seen 102 traffic fatalities, which is similar to 2019’s count of 101. In 2018 — an anomaly for the state — there were 147 traffic fatalities and in 2017, 102.
“We expected the numbers to be a little lower than what they are,” Tramp said in an interview Tuesday, adding that there are far fewer drivers on the road this year.
Traffic in both states, meanwhile, is clearly down since the pandemic hit the Twin States in March.
A Vermont Agency of Transportation graph charting traffic volume on state routes over the past two years shows a steep drop starting in the spring. To date, traffic is down by 27% this year on the stretch of Interstate 91 near Wilder, and down by more than 30% on highways in some other areas of the state, according to the graph.
The number of cars on the road in New Hampshire is also down, according to a chart tracking 2020 traffic volume from the federal Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Traffic in New Hampshire hit a low in late March, when volume dropped almost 40% from 2019 levels. The most recent recordings in late November show that traffic is down 25% from the previous year, according to the BTS.
Though the number of fatal crashes was initially surprising, both Tramp and White point to an increase in reckless driving this year as a possible explanation.
“There’s an uptick in speeding, impaired driving and driving unrestrained,” Tramp said, adding that the increase in recklessness is likely the “combination of a lot of things,” including the economic and social impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
The pandemic may also have affected the number of pedestrians involved in fatal crashes this year; 15 pedestrians had been killed in crashes in New Hampshire as of Dec. 7, versus eight pedestrians by roughly the same date in 2019.
Tramp said more people started walking in residential neighborhoods and places where pedestrians don’t frequently walk in an attempt to get outside amid lockdown orders. That, combined with an increase in reckless driving, could contribute to the increase in pedestrian deaths, she said.
In Vermont, White, who works with police around the state, has seen the same level of recklessness.
“The number of people driving outrageously fast and taking chances … (is) outrageously up this year,” he said. That was especially true following the governor’s lockdown orders in the spring, when traffic volume in Vermont took a dive, but traffic speeds increased, White said.
While Vermont has not seen the same kind of increase in pedestrian deaths that New Hampshire has seen, the number of pedestrians killed in car crashes is on par with previous years, despite the decrease in drivers on the road. Six pedestrians have been killed in crashes this year, versus three in 2019 and six in 2018, according to data provided by the Vermont Agency of Transportation.
Another possible explanation for the increase in reckless and speedy driving might be due to police departments’ attempts to reduce traffic stops to cut down on in-person contact amid the virus.
“Law enforcement have to worry about protecting their personnel,” White said, adding that police have been focused on pulling over drivers who might be a danger to themselves and others. “They’re instructing officers not to stop any little violation they see.”
Though the pandemic seems to have contributed to reckless driving and driving-related deaths this year, the same can’t be said for other deaths that police investigate, like homicides. In both Vermont and New Hampshire, the homicide rate appears to have decreased in 2020.
As of Dec. 9, Vermont had seen a total of 11 homicides in 2020, a slight reduction from previous years, according to Adam Silverman, a spokesman for the Vermont State Police. In 2019 the state had 15 homicides, versus 14 in 2018 and 15 in 2017.
“We didn’t know what to expect from the pandemic, going in,” said Vermont State Police Major Crimes Unit Capt. Scott Dunlap, adding that it was difficult for police to anticipate whether COVID-19 would lead to an increase or reduction in homicides.
However, he said the reduced number of cases this year could be related to stricter orders to stay home and isolate amid the coronavirus.
When it comes to the type of homicides the state has seen, Dunlap said there is virtually no change, despite concerns earlier this year that police would see an increase in domestic violence cases resulting from stay-at-home orders. In November, officials with the Hartford Police Department and the Orange County Sheriff’s Office both reported seeing an increase in calls for family disturbances this year.
Despite early concerns and more recent reports of family disturbances on the rise, domestic violence-related homicides have made up 50% of Vermont’s homicide cases this year, which is no change from previous years, Dunlap said.
“It’s hard to say how the pandemic played into that,” he added.
New Hampshire has seen an even greater reduction in homicides in 2020 compared with recent years. As of Dec. 9, the state had logged 13 homicides, compared with 33 in 2019 and 22 in 2018.
However, Associate Attorney General Jeff Strelzin said the decrease is not “completely unexpected,” and that it’s “impossible to say” whether it’s tied to COVID-19.
“It’s lower than average, but the numbers go up and down every year,” he said.
Like Vermont, New Hampshire has historically seen around 40% to 50% of homicide cases resulting from domestic violence issues, and that percentage is reflected in this year’s numbers as well.
Regardless of what police are seeing now, Strelzin said it will likely be a while before people are able to get a full understanding of how the pandemic affected traffic deaths and homicides in 2020.
“We’ll have to look back several years from now,” he said.
Anna Merriman can be reached at amerriman@vnews.com or 603-727-3216.