Is the economic and social decline of rural America inevitable, as the magnet that attracts capital and human talent to urban centers exerts an ever stronger pull? Some very smart people think so.
“There are powerful forces behind the relative and in some cases absolute economic decline of rural America,” writes New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, “and the truth is that nobody knows how to reverse those forces.”
Closer to home, officials in both Vermont and New Hampshire publicly worry that an exodus of young people is contributing to a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce.
Against this backdrop, though, some other observers, such as Sarah Smarsh, author of the memoir Heartland and host of the podcast The Homecomers, are detecting hints of an emerging counter-narrative. One part has to do with attitudes about rural life, both among people who live in the country and those who live in cities.
Given that about 80 percent of the population lives in urban areas, it is perhaps surprising that a Gallup survey late last year found that if they could live anywhere, 39 percent of Americans said a rural area or small town would be their No. 1 choice. “If Americans did sort themselves according to their desires,” Gallup reported, “there would be an exodus from the big cities and, to a lesser degree, from small cities and towns, accompanying a movement to rural areas.” It appears that in many cases, economic motives — the pursuit of career and other kinds of opportunities — drives migration to cities, not a decided preference for urban living itself.
Another survey, this one conducted for National Public Radio, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, found that despite the challenges facing rural communities, rural Americans tend to be optimistic about their future. About four in 10, for example, said their lives have turned out better than expected; a majority said they are better off financially than their parents were at the same age and expect their children to do better financially than they have. Most said they felt a sense of attachment to their communities, and younger ones especially expressed a commitment to help their community solve its problems.
Researchers also have identified a “brain gain” in Minnesota and Nebraska, countering the long-identified “brain drain” from rural to urban. Despite losing high school graduates, those states are gaining residents with higher skills and education. For example, researcher Ben Winchester of the University of Minnesota Extension service found that between 2000 and 2010 most of Minnesota’s rural counties gained in the number of 30- to 49-year-old, early- to mid-career residents with resources and connections.
And The Christian Science Monitor reported this summer that a new generation of rural entrepreneurs is settling on the Great Plains. Rather than going off to big cities to acquire skills and then returning home decades later, these young people are often returning right after college and putting their education and social media skills to work immediately in establishing unconventional agricultural enterprises and other ventures.
All this is not to underestimate the challenges that face rural America, lack of economic opportunity and addiction chief among them. But it does suggest that the prospect of rural life continues to hold attractions for many Americans and that young people may be figuring out ways to live where they want to live. That does not seem to us to confirm the narrative that rural areas are condemned to become wastelands. And climate change is an X factor that could lead to population gains in rural areas.
There’s plenty that the federal government could do to help: enact universal health care, for instance; alleviate student debt, making it easier for rural youngsters to stay home after college (this especially would help in Vermont and New Hampshire); invest in infrastructure and economic development. Several progressive Democratic presidential candidates have proposed various measures to reinvigorate rural life and bolster economic opportunity, and we invite readers to take a look at those policies as the race takes shape. It’s in the best interests of the entire nation to ensure that all its geographic sections thrive and that none are left behind.