JERUSALEM — Just over a month before elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looks more vulnerable than ever.
Following a dramatic announcement on Thursday by Israel’s attorney general, Netanyahu almost certainly faces indictment on corruption charges in the coming months. His main challenger leads him in the polls, and he is taking heat even from his supporters for forming an alliance with a racist ultranationalist party.
But when the dust settles after the April 9 vote, the person most likely to emerge as prime minister remains Netanyahu, thanks to a devoted base of supporters and a public that tends to agree with his world view.
Still, a Netanyahu victory is far from certain, and his ability to rule effectively if he does win will be limited.
Here is a look at what lies ahead for the Israeli leader:
Capping an investigation that began over two years ago, Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit announced his intention on Thursday to indict Netanyahu on corruption charges in a series of scandals .
The most serious charge is bribery, for allegedly promoting regulatory changes that helped Shaul Elovitch, the head of telecom giant Bezeq, reap a hefty financial windfall. In exchange, Elovitch allegedly had Bezeq’s popular news site, Walla, publish favorable items about Netanyahu and his family, while promoting negative coverage of some of Netanyahu’s rivals.
Perhaps the most embarrassing charge involves breach of trust, for allegedly accepting some $300,000 worth of champagne and cigars as gifts from billionaire friends. The revelations reinforced Netanyahu’s image as a hedonist with expensive tastes and a propensity for letting others pick up the tab.
While a sitting Israeli prime minister has never been this close to indictment before, Netanyahu is not obligated to resign at this stage. The planned indictment is still subject to a hearing, during which Netanyahu can plead his case before formal charges are filed. This process is expected to take up to a year to complete.
That means Netanyahu can continue to lead his Likud Party into elections, even with a cloud of scandal over his head.
Like his good friend Donald Trump, Netanyahu enjoys the staunch support of a loyal base that has remained firmly behind him during the past few years of police investigations. In addition, lawmakers in Netanyahu’s Likud Party have lined up behind him. Thursday’s announcement by Mandelblit is unlikely to change that.
Responding to the attorney general’s recommendations, Netanyahu sounded much like Trump, accusing prosecutors, police, the media and his “leftist” opponents of conspiring to oust him. This is a theme that plays well with the base and that he will likely continue to sound throughout the campaign.
Under Israel’s political system, the politician who has the best chance of building a majority coalition is chosen to be prime minister.
Even with all his troubles, Netanyahu and his political allies, a mixture of hard-line religious and nationalist parties, appear to be best positioned to form the next parliamentary coalition, reflecting a broader shift toward the right in public opinion over the past two decades.
Netanyahu, who is seeking a fourth consecutive term, faces a challenger unlike any he has seen before.
Political newcomer Benny Gantz, a popular former military chief, has surged in opinion polls with a message stressing his army background — an essential credential in security-obsessed Israel — along with an untarnished image.
Gantz’s partnership with Yair Lapid, another popular centrist figure, has been welcomed by the public, and their new alliance has jumped ahead in polls.
Even so, polls forecast an extremely tight.