Istanbul
Mohammed widely is seen as Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, and since Khashoggi vanished, questions have swirled about whether any Saudi operation to capture or kill him could have been ordered without Mohammed’s approval. But Erdogan addressed his comments — his appeals for justice, his demands for answers — not to Mohammed, but to his father, King Salman.
If it was a conspicuous display of respect for the Saudi monarch, it also was an attempt to drive a wedge between the king and the crown prince, whom Erdogan considers a rival and ideological opponent, as well as a threat to Turkey’s interests and ambitions in the Middle East, analysts said.
There was debate about whether Erdogan aimed to marginalize Mohammed or prod Salman to pick a new successor, but in either case, he was trying not to damage Turkey’s overall relationship with Saudi Arabia, they said. And it was the latest sign of Erdogan’s willingness to use Khashoggi’s case — prolong it even — to serve his larger strategic goals.
More than three weeks after Khashoggi was killed by Saudis in what Erdogan called a “planned” operation, his government has yet to publicly divulge all that it knows about the plot or who ordered it. Saudi Arabia denied any knowledge of Khashoggi’s whereabouts for weeks but acknowledged in the last few days that he had been killed in what they said was a fistfight with “rogue” Saudi operatives.
Turkish investigators said they had pieced together much of the Saudi plan within days of Khashoggi’s killing. But their strategy has been to leak details bit by bit, pressuring the Saudis to reveal what happened and perhaps wringing concessions from Riyadh and its allies.
Erdogan’s speech on Tuesday continued that pattern, providing intriguing new details but failing to deliver the “naked truth” that he had promised and that had generated global interest in what he had to say.
He may have had a much smaller audience in mind. The speech contained a “direct message” to the king, said H.A. Hellyer, a senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, noting the deferential references to Salman in Erdogan’s comments. Even Erdogan’s most difficult request — that Saudi Arabia extradite to Turkey 18 suspects it had arrested in the plot — was framed as a “proposal” to the king.
“He’s hoping that by going about this in sort of delicate fashion that the king himself will decide that Mohammed bin Salman ought not to be crown prince,” Hellyer said.
The odds of that outcome appear low, Saudi watchers say, but Erdogan’s pursuit of it illustrates the depth of his antipathy toward Mohammed and his policies in the Middle East.
And Erdogan resents the Trump administration’s strong reliance on the Saudis, their Arab allies and Israel as key players in the U.S. effort to counter Iran, said Aydin Selcen, a Turkish political commentator and former diplomat.