Environmental advocates are worried that President-elect Donald Trump will try to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement — and a recent scientific analysis says that if he does and other major countries follow suit, the consequence could be dire, tipping the world toward a dangerous level of global warming.
But what other countries might also fail to keep their promises to the world under that agreement? Recently, concerns have grown about the seventh-largest emitter, Brazil, which seems to be seeing some environmental backsliding as it battles a fierce recession and reels from a tumultuous impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff.
In September, environmentalists praised Brazil’s decision to ratify the Paris climate agreement — a significant move for the global climate, given Brazil’s high rank among emitters of greenhouse gases and the fact that it is home to the world’s largest tropical rain forest. But now rising deforestation and proposed environmental policy changes have some experts worried that the nation might not live up to its climate pledges after all.
Recent data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research indicate that deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon rain forest between August 2015 and July 2016 increased by 29 percent from the previous year. That followed a similar uptick in deforestation between August 2012 and July 2013.
This is big news for a country that, until recently, had been making strides in its efforts to curb deforestation. While large tracts of the rain forest are still being cleared each year, these losses reached a historic low in 2012.
Preserving the forests serves many environmental interests, such as safeguarding biodiversity, protecting water quality and upholding the rights of indigenous peoples in the Amazon. But it’s especially important for the global climate. Forests are important carbon sinks, but they release this carbon into the atmosphere when they’re destroyed. Much of Brazil’s carbon emissions are actually the result of deforestation — and if forest losses continue to grow, it would be nearly impossible for the nation to meet its climate commitments.
Under the Paris agreement, the Brazilian government has agreed to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 37 percent below their 2005 levels by the year 2025, with a possible extra goal of getting them down to 43 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. As part of this goal, the government aims to reach zero illegal deforestation by 2030, as well as restore 12 million hectares of forest by then.
According to experts, much of the problem of deforestation has to do with a lack of resources for enforcing the nation’s environmental laws.
“I think there is a risk of backsliding, because unless governments invest in enforcement, it’s very difficult to comply with our commitment,” said Rachel Biderman, Brazil country director at the World Resources Institute. According to Biderman, preventing illegal deforestation in the Amazon depends heavily on adequate surveillance of the forest – and currently, there just isn’t enough money allocated for it.
“We have very good laws,” she said. “The problem is that they’re not enforced.”
Many environmentalists are also worried that some of the nation’s environmental policies may soon be changing. A recent bill has proposed an overhaul of Brazil’s environmental licensing laws, which require industrial projects to undergo environmental evaluations before proceeding, according to reporting by the Guardian. The new bill would make these licensing procedures more flexible and even allow exemptions for certain activities.