Minneapolis
Last year, U.S. motorists drove more miles — 3.148 trillion — than any other year in history, according to data released by the Federal Highway Administration in February. And about 17 million new cars and trucks were sold in 2015, an increase of nearly 6 percent and a level of car commerce not seen since 2000.
Why?
The FHA, which logs miles driven by car, bus and truck drivers, is reluctant to speculate. “We just know there are more cars out there and they’re going farther,” said spokesman Doug Hecox.
It could be historically low gas prices.
“People may be more likely to take a road trip vs. staying at home or flying somewhere,” said Bill Holloway, a transportation policy analyst at the State Smart Transportation Initiative in Madison, Wis.
Low prices at the pump aren’t the main reason people are buying more cars; that’s likely due to a stronger economy, said Haig Stoddard, senior industry analyst for Wards Auto. But gas prices may have spurred last year’s 13 percent increase in sales of pickups, vans, sport utility vehicles and crossovers, which guzzle more fuel.
The outlook for sales remains strong, in part because so many families delayed new-car purchases during the Great Recession and its stodgy recovery.
“There are a lot of vehicles on the road that are very old, which will lead to some replacement,” Stoddard said. “You hear that vehicles built today last longer,” and people tend to keep them longer, too.
Minneapolis-area resident Ken Roberts owns two cars — a 2002 Mitsubishi with 285,000 miles, and a 2000 Chevrolet Cavalier that has clocked some 272,000 miles — and plans to drive both “into the ground.” The main criteria for a new vehicle is “four doors and good gas mileage,” he said, pointing out his 48-mile one-way commute.
Nationally, U.S. DOT expects a 43 percent increase in commercial truck shipments, partly due to the explosion of e-commerce, and anticipated population growth of 70 million by 2045.
Even though people may be driving less on a per capita basis, “an increasing population with increasing freight demands still leads to more and more total miles traveled and more challenges on the road ahead,” the Transportation Department reported.
In December, President Obama signed the FAST Act into law, which will invest $305 billion in America’s transportation infrastructure over the next five years, including $226 billion for roads and bridges.
But nationally known smart-growth advocate Chuck Marohn says, “For so long the embedded assumption (of policymakers) is that increased auto miles equals greater economic development. I’ve argued that we’ve crossed the threshold of diminishing returns.”
Road projects resulting from programs like the FAST Act “gin up the economy in the short term,” he said, but the real question is “how do we make more productive use of all the stuff we’ve already built and are struggling to maintain?”
Marohn, founder and president of Strong Towns, characterizes discussion of millennials and boomers scorning cars as “silly. Try living in this state without a car. There are very few places (here) you can actually do it and enjoy any success or affluence.
“It should not surprise anyone that millennials out of college move out of Uptown, get a job in the suburbs and wind up getting a car and driving,” he said. “Because that’s the economy we have built.”