Column: None of the above leads race in 2024

If an election were held today, polling data indicate that “None of the Above” would win. Two months ago, Roll Call reported that an Economist/YouGov poll conducted June 10-13 found 59% of voters don’t want Biden to seek reelection, with only 26% favoring a run for a second term. In the same poll, Trump got similar results — with 56% against him running again compared to 33% in favor. Independents were against either candidate running again: 64% against Biden and 59% against Trump. Polls over the past weeks have yielded similar results, with neither candidate receiving strong, unequivocal support from a majority of voters.

The legal news this month will not help either candidate gain ground. Earlier, Merrick Garland announced his decision to elevate David Weiss to a special counsel status in the ongoing investigation into Hunter Biden’s business dealings. Last week, former President Trump was indicted in Georgia for meddling in the 2020 election, his fourth indictment in the past year. T

his means that if the election were held today Americans would be forced to choose between two aged Baby Boomers embroiled in controversies involving events that occurred in the past, events that special counsels appointed by the DOJ continue to investigate. If the election were held today, American voters would be basing their choice for president on which candidate is the least tarnished by scandal.

Meanwhile, the temperature of the planet is increasing, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine drags on, and emerging democracies in Africa and Latin America are in peril. Nationally, life expectancy is declining, drug abuse persists, students in our schools are experiencing unparalleled mental health problems, and the economy sputters. With all this happening, do we really want the 2024 election to be about Jan. 6, 2020, and Hunter Biden’s business dealings in the last decade?

Here’s a plausible but unlikely scenario that might result in voters having a different choice than Biden and Trump in 2024. For this avoidance of a rematch to take place, two things need to happen: Trump needs to falter in the primaries and Biden needs to step aside as the standard bearer for the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump’s fourth indictment may well result in him performing below expectations in the primaries. Some of Trump’s core voters might abandon him because they realize he is using their campaign contributions to underwrite his legal fees, or realize that he failed to keep promises about building a border wall using funds from Mexico, or realize that the primary accomplishment from his first term in office was a tax cut that benefitted the top 1% but offered no relief for them.

Other Trump voters might abandon him for pragmatic reasons. They might vote for other candidates because they fear that his continued tirades about the election in 2020 being stolen are wearing thin with the general populous and will make it impossible for him to beat Biden in 2024. If 25% of Trump’s supporters either stay home for the primaries or cast their votes for another candidate, he will no longer have insurmountable support among GOP voters and his invincibility as a candidate will be suspect. Those candidates in the primary who expressed their unequivocal support for former President Trump will be diminished as well and, assuming the former Trump voters do not coalesce around another candidate, the GOP will have no viable announced candidate for the office. This could clear the way for a more moderate undeclared candidate to step into the void, someone younger and more vibrant than Trump with a proven track record of leadership. Someone like former GOP Governors like New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu or Maryland’s Larry Hogan or current Georgia Governor Brian Kemp would fit that bill. They all won contested elections without Trump’s support and can point to successes in their respective states. This scenario is not implausible.

Joe Biden’s decision to step down is more of a stretch but would not be unprecedented. Given the turmoil involving his son’s alleged misdeeds, his low poll numbers despite his administration’s legislative accomplishments, and the possible emergence of a less controversial candidate than Trump. Biden might consider stepping down to allow his party’s next generation to build on his legacy and his efforts to restore faith in government. Who would that person be? He might follow the blueprint another of another veteran politician, Lyndon Johnson, who, in March of 1968 unexpectedly announced his decision to step down and opened the door for a competitive primary without choosing a successor. Should Biden take such a step, I would expect Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer or California Governor Gavin Newsome to declare their intention to run, though there are other candidates might emerge as well.

I would welcome a 2024 election without Biden or Trump because it would not have the mudslinging that will inevitably prevail in a rematch. Instead of taunts about Biden’s age, mental infirmity, and stability, instead of relitigating the “stolen” 2020 election, and instead of reviewing Hunter Biden’s misdeeds a decade ago, the election might focus on the most important issues facing the planet: climate change; wars; the spread of totalitarianism; and the gross economic inequities across the globe and in our country. A campaign without Trump or Biden might focus on ways to fix seemingly intractable problems like immigration, the displacement of jobs due to technology and outsourcing, and the lack of affordable health care and housing. It’s time for candidates younger than I am to take the helm and solve the problems my generation left behind.