LEBANON — Initial reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent reversal of Roe v. Wade highlight differences between Republican politicians in New Hampshire and Vermont on the court’s decision and its impact on their constituents.
In the wake of Dobbs v. Jackson, in which the Supreme Court overturned a nearly 50-year precedent that guaranteed women the right to an abortion, Vermont Republican candidates for U.S. Senate conveyed contrasting positions on abortion rights and how they would respond if elected to office. Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Republican candidates, for both the state Legislature and the U.S. Senate, said the end of Roe v. Wade will not affect the state’s current abortion law.
Unlike New Hampshire, Vermont permits abortion at all stages of pregnancy. Vermont’s law is also codified as a state statute, and Vermonters will vote on a proposition in November that would establish abortion as a right in the state constitution.
As a result, the current attention of Vermont abortion rights advocates is not toward state races but its federal ones, as the only real threat to abortion access in Vermont would be a federal abortion ban.
With the pending retirement of U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., Vermonters in November will elect a new U.S. senator and a new representative to the U.S. House. Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., plans to run to replace Leahy, leaving Welch’s current seat in the House up for grabs.
While Republican candidates will face a difficult challenge to win either of these seats, a surprise Republican victory would not guarantee a victory for anti-abortion advocates.
In the U.S. Senate race, two Republican candidates illustrate the diversity of views toward abortion rights in Vermont.
Christina Nolan, a former U.S. Attorney for Vermont, is a supporter of abortion rights. In a statement on Twitter following the Dobbs ruling, Nolan vowed to support federal legislation to protect women’s reproductive rights if elected.
“In the wake of this decision, I fear that women’s health will take a backseat to extreme reactions and partisan anger,” Nolan wrote. “As a leader, I will put women’s health first and work to find a legislative solution.”
In contrast, candidate Gerald Malloy, a U.S. Army veteran from Perkinsville, praised the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, calling it a victory for state’s rights.
“As a firm supporter of all Amendments, I must say if it wasn’t listed in the Constitution, the decision rightfully belongs to the States and People,” Malloy said in a statement.
However, Malloy told the Valley News that while he considers himself “pro-life,” he would not favor federal legislation to ban abortion, as he believes that power belongs only to the states.
Vermont Republican Party Chairman Paul Dame said that Republicans have an opportunity this election to compete for these congressional seats, due to the dissatisfaction of voters over economic strains stemming from fuel prices, workforce shortages and inflation.
“I think Vermonters are willing to give a little wiggle room (to candidates they connect with),” Dame said in an interview on NBC5’s show In Depth in late June. “They don’t need a candidate who is going to agree with them 100%, but they need a candidate who is thoughtful, who understands the issue and is willing to listen to all sides.”
On the New Hampshire side of the Upper Valley, Republican legislators and candidates for the Statehouse acknowledged the high emotional impact on residents of last week’s court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson, in which the Supreme Court overturned a nearly 50-year precedent that guaranteed women the right to an abortion.
However, Republicans in the Upper Valley said the court’s ruling changed nothing in New Hampshire, where abortions are permitted through the first 23 weeks of pregnancy.
“I can’t imagine a scenario where (our law) is going to shift,” said Deputy Speaker of the N.H. House of Representatives Steven Smith, R-Charlestown.
Smith said that New Hampshire’s abortion law is currently in “a stable place,” following the passage of new bills in 2021 and 2022, which ban abortions in the third trimester, or at 24 weeks in the pregnancy, with exceptions for medical emergencies that place the mother’s life or health at risk or for fatal fetal anomalies that commonly result in a late-term miscarriage or infant death.
Smith said he does not support a full ban of abortion in New Hampshire, nor does he believe an abortion ban could pass into law.
While several stricter abortion laws were proposed this term, including one that would have prohibited abortions after detection of a fetal heartbeat, these bills failed to make it past committee reviews, according to state docket records.
“(A legislator) would have to convince at least 201 representatives, 13 senators and the governor,” Smith said. “A radical ban of abortion is not going to pass.”
Other Republican legislators and candidates in the Upper Valley also expressed satisfaction with New Hampshire’s current abortion law and said they do not wish to pursue further restrictions.
“I see no compelling reason to further tinker with that delicate balance and do not anticipate supporting further restrictions in the coming term,” state Rep. Terry Spilsbury, R-Charlestown, said.
“In my opinion, a full ban on all abortions would not reflect the values or views of citizens of New Hampshire,” said Claremont City Councilor Jonathan Stone, R-Claremont, one of four candidates running for two seats in District 8.
State Rep. Walter Stapleton, R-Claremont, a staunch anti-abortion activist who sponsored numerous abortion bills last term, including the approved 24-week ban and a stricter proposal that would have prohibited abortions at eight weeks, said that “he doesn’t have a plan at this point” to propose additional restrictions if reelected in November.
“I am happy with the accomplishments we made this term,” Stapleton said, saying the new law protects fetuses when they are most likely to be able to survive outside the womb, while also providing “reasonable” exemptions for medical emergencies that put the mother’s life and health at risk.
Stapleton added that emotions are understandably running high across the country and that people need more time to process the court ruling and its impact before considering additional abortion bills.
“I need time to absorb what has happened and to watch the mood (of the community), which is part of being a responsible representative,” Stapleton said.
While Stapleton believes it is too soon to predict the impact of the Dobbs decision on November’s election turnout, many Republican candidates said they do not foresee the decision significantly changing their campaign focus.
“I don’t see any reason why I would change my approach,” said state Senator Ruth Ward, R-Stoddard, who is running for reelection in District 8. “I believe that inflation, the rising cost of gas, increased price for heating oil and cost of food, to name a few, affects us in a much greater way in New Hampshire than this ruling.”
Recent New Hampshire polls also raise questions about the effect abortion rights issues will have in overall voter turnout or voting trends.
A New Hampshire Journal survey of registered voters in May found that 60% of respondents identify as “pro-choice,” a percentage that is consistent with previous polls in New Hampshire.
However, only 25% of respondents in the Journal survey said that abortion should be available anytime during pregnancy, while 64% said they they either supported New Hampshire’s 24-week ban or would support further restrictions.
The Journal poll appears to contrast data from a Granite State Poll released by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center in July 2021, which found that 56% of respondents opposed the 24-week ban passed by the New Hampshire Legislature and that 53% of respondents opposed the requirement that all women get an ultrasound prior to an abortion. In May the legislature passed a bill to remove the ultrasound requirement from the final version of the law.
Smith said that he anticipates many residents may have misunderstandings about the significance of the court’s ruling in New Hampshire, in part due to political action groups that aim to sway voters.
“My role is to educate people” that the decision “literally means nothing to the status quo in New Hampshire” regarding abortion rights, Smith said.
Patrick Adrian can be reached at pfadrian25@gmail.com.