FAIRLEE — Alix Contosta grew up in Philadelphia, where winter meant snow dyed brown with filth. But then she moved to New England 22 years ago, and as she watched the trees transform into new shapes and colors, winter enchanted her.
The assistant professor at the University of New Hampshire knows that cold weather and snow are not something the region can count on as the climate changes.
“I think about when my kids grow up, and their kids won’t have this — I’m mourning for memories that won’t exist,” she said.
In the Upper Valley, warm and unpredictable winter weather upends traditions. On Saturday, the forecast as of Friday night predicts highs over 50 degrees in parts of the area before temperatures drop below freezing again Sunday. But the cold weather won’t come in time to salvage a string of Saturday events that had to be canceled, including the Upper Valley Trails Alliance’s annual Skate-a-Thon, the Mascoma Lake Skating Association’s Nordic skating clinic, a skating tournament on Sharon Pond and the Bradford Teen Center’s Teen Skating Night. Last week, the Lake Morey Resort canceled its one of its ice pond hockey tournaments, and Hanover called off the Occom Pond Party for good.
Contosta, who works in UNH’s Earth Systems Research Center, has been rooting for winter — the “underdog” season — throughout her career, and her work shows that it is in trouble. New England’s winter is warming faster than other seasons in a region that is warming faster than other parts of the planet. Contosta recently co-authored a paper with Elizabeth Burakowksi, a UNH professor and New England native. They modeled what winter may look like in a range of emissions scenarios.
“We stand to lose one to two months (of winter) by the end of the century, and that really depends on how much the climate warms,” Contosta said. The region will lose snow and cold temperatures not only in the fall and spring, but also in the depths of winter from December to February, she added.
Variable and warm weather in the Upper Valley has made for a challenging season at the Lake Morey Resort. The 4.3-mile trail, which holds the distinction of the longest skating trail in the nation, remains closed. It has never been closed this late into the winter, said Sarah Howe, the resort’s director of business development.
“We keep attempting to make trail condition improvements so we can open it, but the weather has thwarted us at every attempt,” Howe said. The trail is best in a cold season with stable temperatures and snowfall that can be easily removed. Instead, wet, warm snow froze onto the ice, forming a rough surface. And for much of the season, the ice has been too thin for heavy equipment to prepare a trail.
Out of necessity, the resort opened a shorter, half-mile trail — with less distance, they can do more intensive management within short windows of cool temperatures. In recent days, the resort has recommended that skaters come in the morning before a layer of slush accumulates on the warming ice.
And Howe knows that the changing climate will likely only bring more challenges.
“We have been talking all winter about what it is we can do to offer different activities on the lake and across the resort that still get people outdoors, but are not so reliant on ice,” she said.
For the first year, the resort opened a small ice rink to extend their skating season.
At Northeast Slopes, skiers can no longer count on four or five “good powder” days a year, said coordinator Wade Pierson. He has not missed a ski season on the slopes in East Corinth since he first ventured onto the slope at age 2, about 56 years ago.
The slope has been a community fixture since it opened in 1936, but its traditions are evolving with the climate. The season is later in the calendar year than it used to be, Pierson said. The slope used to aim to open before or just after Christmas — in time for children’s vacation — but now “it starts to look like the middle of January when we can realistically expect to have enough snow on the ground to open,” he said. And sometimes they keep the slope open well into April, enjoying the long days after the clocks change.
The volunteer-run operation does not have the money or workforce to make snow, but they can “groom” a light layer of snow into a skiable slope. Luckily, Northeast Slopes kept the old, lightweight groomer that other resorts discarded for heavier, high-tech equipment.
“We’re out there with a teaspoon and a pair of tweezers to put the snow exactly where we need it to be,” he said. And locals have learned to make do with light snowfall and appreciate the feel of skiing over natural snow that does not have the icy layer that builds up under the machine-made variety.
Still, the weather offers unexpected surprises. Last weekend, they enjoyed one of the first “powder days” in years, Pierson said.
By the end of the century, though, only 15% of the ski slopes currently in operation in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada may be in operation, Contosta said. Adaptation measures like snowmaking can only do so much against warming temperatures. And losing the ski industry would have a ripple effect throughout the economy.
Yet Contosta emphasized that the worst possibilities models suggest are not inevitable. The future of winter depends on how much greenhouse gas is emitted.
“If we want to protect our winter — some of our winter, some of our snow — we can take action,” she said. “We can keep to that lower-emissions scenario.”
Claire Potter is a Report for America corps member. She can be reached at cpotter@vnews.com or 603-727- 3242.