The Scott administration has made a cutoff for staff to student ratios a centerpiece of his plan to contain education costs.
The governor’s target for staff to students is a ratio of 1 to 5.75. The plan, which would go into effect in 2020 and lead to the elimination of about 1,000 positions for teachers and paraeducators over a period of five years, is estimated to save $74 million over a five-year period. The positions would be eliminated through attrition.
A VTDigger analysis of Agency of Education data shows that only 11 percent of school districts in the state would meet the 1 to 5.75 threshold in the current fiscal year.
The current average ratio of staff to students is 1 to 5.15. This ratio excludes bus drivers, cafeteria workers, janitors, contractors and special educators.
Of the larger Upper Valley towns that aren’t undergoing major consolidation changes, Norwich — which has the ninth highest staff-to-student ratio in the state — has the highest ratio at 1 to 6.08, with Orange Southwest Unified School District (5.81), Windsor (5.75), Bradford (4.78) and Hartford (4.68) following.
Vermont has more teachers instructing fewer students than any other state, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. The ratio drops to 1 to 4.25 if all other staff are included.
Only 20 out of a total of 186 school districts meet the target, and they’re not necessarily school districts with large student populations. The districts with ratios above 5.75 include Derby, Norwich, Rutland, Starksboro, Milton, Killington, Montpelier and East Montpelier.
A number of large school districts, such as Burlington, Brattleboro and Bennington don’t currently meet the governor’s threshold.
Gov. Phil Scott has said that Vermont has the lowest staff to student ratio in the country, and there aren’t enough students in the state to support current staffing levels.
Act 46, the 2015 school district consolidation law, is meant to help school districts better manage staffing levels. Democratic leadership has recommended the administration give the act time to play out as most mergers are still in process. But Scott doesn’t think the state can afford to wait.
“Since Act 46 passed, we have lost over 3,000 students while education costs have grown more than $60 million,” Scott said. “Clearly trends are growing in the opposite direction and are expected to continue if we don’t act.”
Over the past 20 years student enrollments have dramatically declined from 104,000 students to a low this year of 78,000. The state now spends $1.6 billion on the K-12 public school system. Staff salaries make up more than 80 percent of school costs. Scott says enrollments are expected to drop to 69,000 over the next five years.
“I didn’t say this was going to be easy, but it is something we have to take a look at through natural attrition,” Scott said, referring to retirements and resignations. “I think everyone agrees, because of the demographics and workforce challenges — that is the same in education — we are going to see natural attrition throughout a number of years. Instead of filling those positions… fill about four out of five instead of five out of five.”
Brad James, finance manager for the Agency of Education, was charged with finding a statewide average ratio that included most school staff and teachers. He excluded workers that some schools contract with and bus drivers, janitors and cafeteria workers, as well as, special education teachers and directors and pre-K teachers (and students). That left Vermont with a ratio of 1 staff to 5.15 students.
In fiscal year 2020, the governor’s plan would shift the ratio to 1 to 5.40, garnering $32 million in savings. Over five years, the ratio would be bumped up to 5.75. A task force would help school districts manage vacancies.
School districts will experience attrition differently, according to Susanne Young, secretary of the Agency of Administration, and shouldn’t be expected to “do things the same way.”
The task force envisioned by the governor will be made up of stakeholders who want to take part in it. Adam Greshin, commissioner of finance, suggested the Vermont School Boards Association, the Vermont Superintendents Association, and the Vermont NEA might be part of the coalition.
Nicole Mace, head of the Vermont School Boards Association, has said that her organization is unlikely to support an arbitrary target ratio tied to a specific amount of savings.
“One size fits all ratio targets that do not account for factors like poverty, English language learners and rurality could cause significant harm to the students of this state,” Mace said.
The Vermont School Boards Association passed a resolution last fall supporting a state task force that would set a target ratio based on research that would help to determine district-by-district targets for elementary, middle and high schools.
Greshin said the administration wants the task force to help districts “do what works for them.”
“We can’t be experts on over 300 schools and well over 60 supervisory unions and districts. We can’t be experts on every one of them. We know there are differences out there,” Greshin said.
Mace is skeptical of the administration’s approach. “Do they have any idea how long it will take to work with individual schools to help them do what works for them?” she said.
Darren Allen, the spokesperson for the Vermont NEA, said the cuts were antithetical to the governor’s efforts to draw workers and young families to the state. “The governor is touting that his plan only eliminates 1,000 middle class jobs throughout the state,” Allen said. “That isn’t economic development. That isn’t improving schools and that isn’t good for kids.”