Washington
Repealing the mandate, which compels most Americans to buy health insurance or pay a fine, would free up more than $300 billion in government funding over the next decade that Republicans could use to finance their proposed tax cuts, but it would result in 13 million fewer people having health insurance, according to projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO also has projected that repealing the individual mandate would drive up insurance premiums for many Americans by roughly 10 percent.
The injection of health policy into the tax debate introduces a volatile variable into what was already a challenging political enterprise for Republicans. And it’s unclear whether it will help or hurt the bill’s chances.
By freeing up hundreds of billions of dollars, Senate leaders have more flexibility as they attempt to assuage the concerns of anxious members from across their caucus.
Senate GOP leadership has come under pressure to boost the tax plan’s benefits for the middle class as nonpartisan projections have shown that the wealthy and big corporations would benefit most. At the same time, leaders are struggling to ensure that the legislation does not add too much to the budget deficit in the long run, threatening the bill’s viability under the procedures they intend to use to pass it.
“We’re optimistic that inserting the individual mandate repeal would be helpful,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said on Tuesday after meeting with party members during a closed-door lunch.
Eliminating the individual mandate and having far fewer people signed up for insurance saves money because many of those people receive federal subsidies to buy coverage.
But the elimination would cause substantial political problems of its own.
The attack on former president Barack Obama’s signature legislative achievement is likely to rule out the already slim possibility of support from Democrats, and the prospect of adding millions to the ranks of the uninsured could trouble moderate Republicans who voted down previous repeal efforts.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, one of the Republicans who opposed earlier attempts to roll back the health-care law, said on Tuesday that including the repeal measure “complicates” the tax effort. But she suggested she might be able to support it if the Senate also passes a bipartisan bill to preserve other aspects of the Affordable Care Act.”
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who along with Collins and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, voted down an Affordable Care Act repeal effort this summer, declined to say whether he’d back a tax bill that included repeal.
“I want to look at the bill in its entirety before you start plucking out parts of it to see whether I support it or not,” he said on Tuesday in the Capitol.
Republicans control 52 votes of the 100-seat Senate, so the defection of three members would imperil any changes to the bill. Republicans are trying to pass the tax-cut bill through a process known as reconciliation, which requires only 50 votes — plus a tiebreaking vote from Vice President Mike Pence — to pass the bill.
Pence praised the repeal effort on Tuesday at a Wall Street Journal event in Washington, noting that President Donald Trump is a vocal supporter of the effort and saying that the mandate’s elimination would amount to a tax cut for the middle class.
Repealing the mandate would undermine the Affordable Care Act’s system for attempting to get low-income people and other individuals into private health insurance plans. The health-care law banned insurance companies from discriminating against people with pre-existing health conditions. But to prevent people from waiting to buy insurance until they got sick, the law also imposed financial penalties for individuals who did not maintain coverage.
Health experts say eliminating the mandate would destabilize the individual insurance markets set up by the Affordable Care Act, as they would be full of people with high health-care costs but have far fewer of the healthy people insurance companies depend on to stay profitable. In response, insurance companies would probably massively raise premiums or pull out of the marketplaces entirely.
A powerful group of stakeholders, including the major health insurance and hospital insurance lobbies and two influential doctors’ groups, wrote a letter to leaders of both parties arguing that they should retain the individual mandate.
“There will be serious consequences if Congress simply repeals the mandate while leaving the insurance reforms in place: millions more will be uninsured or face higher premiums, challenging their ability to access the care they need,” the groups wrote.