President Donald Trump won’t be in the room when negotiations resume today to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement, but his threats to blow up the talks could figure prominently.
Since the first round of discussions wrapped up on Aug. 20, Trump has threatened to withdraw from NAFTA four times — during speeches in Arizona and Missouri, in a Twitter post and at a news conference with the Finnish president. While Mexican officials have dismissed the comments as a scare tactic that could also be aimed at energizing Trump’s anti-trade supporters, the threats are a reminder of the significant leverage that a president holds to scuttle the $1.2 trillion trading area. A party can withdraw with six months’ notice.
Trump’s tone contrasts with the generally polite and constructive atmosphere among negotiators in the early stages, according to two people taking part in the private discussions who asked not to be identified. Still, the mood could change quickly when officials start moving from exchanging proposals to bridging differences. On a personal level, many of the negotiators have known one another for years and brokered deals in the past, the two people said.
“These are tough, hard, complex technical and political negotiations, and someone who is very impatient and who has in the past said that he doesn’t understand why this has to take so long could be tempted to press the nuclear button,” said Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. “That’s the danger that is out there.”
Trump pulled the U.S. back from the brink of withdrawal in April. He changed his mind after seeing a map of NAFTA-dependent U.S. states whose votes helped propel him to the White House. Trump may not want to start picking fights with lawmakers as he looks for a legislative win on raising the debt ceiling in September and a tax overhaul by year-end.
With Trump’s threats of exiting NAFTA “you don’t know if this a negotiating tactic or substantial,” said Fred Bergsten, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “If he proposes to terminate, the reaction in both Mexico and Canada would be awful. Agriculture in particular would go ballistic, the auto industry would go ballistic.”
Still, behind closed doors Mexican government officials have worried that political turmoil or falling approval ratings at home could make Trump look for a fight abroad to divert attention and fire up his base, according to two people familiar with their thinking. Under that scenario, Mexico could become an attractive political pinata, regardless of NAFTA’s merits, they said.
“There are various risks, but one of the most important without a doubt, is the possibility that President Trump could take a decision unilaterally that he wants to leave the deal,” said Moises Kalach, the trade director for Mexico’s business lobby.
Trump’s latest threat to terminate NAFTA and reset regional trade relations came during a speech on tax reform on Wednesday in Springfield, Mo. It came just hours after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer updated Trump on the ongoing negotiations.
One aspect of the talks the governments can agree on is reaching a deal fast because of the political calendar. Mexico holds presidential elections in July and U.S. Congressional mid-terms are in November next year.