I gave a talk in the Upper Valley last August that tried to predict the likelihood of the next president initiating a “Big Infrastructure” (history shaping) project during his or her first term. Before making that prediction I briefly analyzed five “Big” projects to see if we could find markers to help in the prediction.
I looked at America’s signature infrastructure projects: the Transcontinental Railroad, the Panama Canal, the massive works program of the Great Depression, the Interstate Highway System, and the assembly of human and physical capital needed to successfully launch the Moon Shot. I found a commonality of three markers that, together, seemed to be good predictors: a strong or charismatic president; a unified Congress; and a powerful public consensus for the project. Under those criteria, and given the conventional wisdom of the time, there seemed little chance of a Big Infrastructure project in the next administration whoever won.
The contest between the two most unpopular candidates to run since the science of polling began, along with the sharp division in the electorate, indicated that there would not be a strong or unifying president — or consensus. Moreover, the deep and antagonistic division already present within Congress made a unified Congress unlikely whatever its political makeup.
Briefly, analysis of the markers showed the following:
Strong president: Lincoln, Republican.
Unified Congress: Republican, but artificially unified given the secession of its Confederate members along with their states.
Consensus: There was a strong consensus to build the Transcontinental Railroad, but its proposed routing was sharply contested between Slave and Free State representatives. President Lincoln seized the opportunity to build the line given that the legislators’ secession presented him with a truncated Congress that would do his will. He initiated the project not despite the Civil War, but because of it.
Strong, charismatic president: Theodore Roosevelt, Republican.
Unified Congress: Both Houses Republican.
Consensus: America was in the expansionistic phase of its entry onto the world stage with a jingoistic president. The canal was necessary to deploy its Navy as an emerging world power.
Powerful president during economic crisis: FDR, Democrat.
Unified Congress: Both Houses Democratic.
Consensus: National economic crisis built strong support for job-creating infrastructure works program, even though there was some bitter opposition.
Respected president, whose leadership earned in the existential crisis of World War II carried over to the nuclear threat at the height of the Cold War: Dweight Eisenhower, Republican.
Unified Congress: Both Houses Democratic, but overriding concern was support for national defense during the Cold War.
Consensus: Although largely forgotten today, the principal rationale for the Interstate Highway System was its use as a population dispersal medium in case of a nuclear attack.
Popular and charismatic president: John F. Kennedy, Democrat.
Unified Congress: Both Houses Democratic.
Consensus: National urge to meet and surpass the Russian Sputnik challenge.
Highly divisive president-elect: Donald Trump, Republican.
Unified Congress: Both Houses Republican, but Trump is not beholden to the Republican Party for his election, nor is the Republican Congress sure of the president-elect’s programs and his consistency with Republican principles.
Consensus: A deeply divided electorate but with a potential unifying theme across the division — infrastructure-related job creation.
The reality of the election turned August’s conventional wisdom prediction on its head. In an extraordinary surprise, Trump embarrassed the pollsters and pundits and won the Electoral College decisively. Moreover, the Republicans maintained their hold on both Houses of Congress even though a deep divide remains within each, and within the Republican Party itself concerning the president-elect’s consistency with conservative principles.
The electorate is bitterly divided, but there is one issue that may provide an overlap between the Trump voters and the enthusiastic Sanders wing of the Democratic Party: infrastructure-related jobs. A coalition of these shared interests could form a consensus. But will it be strong enough to overcome Trump’s divisiveness and the internal divisions within the Republican Houses of Congress?
If President-elect Trump determines to follow a Big Infrastructure construction strategy based on FDR’s Depression-era model, he would still face the Republican factions in the House and Senate that hobbled President Obama’s attempt to use a similar strategy during the Great Recession. They have already issued warnings that if a Big Infrastructure initiative is attempted without paying for it through cuts in other federal programs, it will be a nonstarter. But if Trump can somehow convince his Republican Houses to change course and place a strong bipartisan consensus for work-creating jobs over intraparty bickering, he may actually deliver one segment of his overblown promises, and, perhaps, even put the Democrats at further risk of losing traditional blue-collar voters.
A review of the big American infrastructure projects underscores the essentiality of a strong and unifying president and Congress. Trump is very unpopular with half of the electorate and his Republican Congress is unified in Republican name only.
If the markers are right, a Trump Big Infrastructure project appears unlikely at this point. But President-elect Trump surprised the pundits and prognosticators in the election. He has a chance to do so again if he overturns the markers’ predictive force.
There appears to be a path through the Big Infrastructure markers available to Trump. He can seize the opportunity to revive President Obama’s high-speed rail initiative that was thwarted by a hostile Republican Congress. Trump is not beholden to the Republican Congress for his election. Rather, the Congress is empowered by his capture of the White House. If Trump pushes for a high-speed rail project (whatever its origins), he would combine a job-creating consensus with a highly visible project that would overcome America’s embarrassing position at the bottom of the industrial nations vis-a-vis rail passenger service — and, in so doing initiate a signature project.
Big Infrastructure is a big opportunity for President-elect Trump.
Charles H. White Jr. is a senior research fellow at Dartmouth’s Tuck School. He formerly served as a senior railroad policy official at the U.S. Department of Transportation and as port commissioner for the Port of Baltimore. He lives in Norwich and Annapolis, Md.