Dubai, United Arab Emirates —�� Saudi Arabia will probably keep producing crude at near-record levels under its newly appointed oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih, as the world’s largest exporter sticks with its policy of defending market share against higher-cost shale.

Al-Falih, also chairman of the state producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said on his first day in office on Sunday that he will maintain the kingdom’s oil policy. His predecessor, Ali al-Naimi, had been leading a policy prioritizing sales over prices since 2014, driving some higher-cost producers, including U.S. shale drillers, off the market. In so doing, Saudi Arabia boosted output, adding to an oil glut. The strategy is showing signs of succeeding this year, with prices rising more than 60 percent since falling to a 12-year low in January.

Saudi Arabia could exceed its record output of more than 10.5 million barrels a day if it pumps more to meet a seasonal surge in domestic demand during the summer, analysts from Emirates NBD and Qamar Energy said. The country, with the world’s second-largest oil reserves, pumped 10.27 million barrels a day in April.

“If the market considers the appointment as signaling more of the same for Saudi policy, that could allow prices to continue following their gradual trend upward,” Edward Bell, commodities analyst at Emirates NBD, said Sunday. Continuity in Saudi policy may be offset by the immediate impact of Canadian forest fires forcing about 1 million barrels of daily crude production offline, he said.

“They’ll continue the policy of relatively high oil production with no freeze and no deals,” said Robin Mills, chief executive officer at Qamar Energy. “It depends how aggressive the Saudis are in pursuing high production for extended periods and how willing they are to accept lower prices for longer.”

Saudi Arabia appointed Al-Falih Saturday to head the newly expanded Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources. He replaced al-Naimi, a 20-year veteran in the post.