Moscow
The drawdown will start with the departure of the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and a small flotilla of other vessels, Gen. Valery Gerasimov said on Friday in televised remarks.
Experts expressed skepticism that the announcement meant Russian was withdrawing from Syria, noting that Russia had temporarily reduced its support in the past and was continuing to upgrade its air base near the Mediterranean city of Latakia or a naval facility in the city of Tartus.
“People should not assume that this drawdown means that they are going to leave the battlefield,” said Robert S. Ford, a Middle East expert at Yale and a former U.S. ambassador to Syria.
Some analysts suggested that Russia’s move was aimed at putting pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad ahead of peace talks that Russia plans to convene this month in Kazakhstan.
“They know that Assad’s manpower is very limited,” said Andrew J. Tabler, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “They want the regime to make concessions.”
The message to Syria is that it can no longer rely on unlimited air cover for its ground forces, he said.
Throughout the six-year civil war, which has claimed more than 40,000 lives and turned more than half the Syrian population into refugees, Russia has stood diplomatically and militarily behind Assad.
Last month, the Russian air force helped Assad’s troops retake parts of the northern city of Aleppo that had been under rebel control for almost four years, a key turning point in the war. It was a brutal assault that human rights groups said included indiscriminate bombing of civilians.
On Dec. 30, Putin announced a cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey, which has long called for Assad’s removal from power.
Lt. Gen. Ali Abdullah Ayyoub, a top official in the Syrian military, appeared in the televised announcement of the Russian drawdown to praise Russia for its backing.
“The support that the Russian air force offered was crucial for our victories, which paved the way for a cease-fire and created the conditions for launching a political settlement of the Syrian crisis,” he told Gerasimov through a translator.
Its 55,000-ton aircraft carrier has for years been plagued by malfunctions and was ridiculed in Western media for the clouds of black smoke it belched on the way to Syria.
The current cease-fire, which does not include Islamic State and other jihadist groups, has been violated dozens of times.
If the peace talks scheduled for this month fail to occur or wind up collapsing — as previous talks have — it’s unclear whether Russian forces would continue to back the regime as it fights to recover rebel-held areas.
The Assad regime announced on Thursday it was prepared to take on opposition forces in Idlib province, where rebels were sent after losing Aleppo.
