It’s said that generals are always prepared to fight the last war. That aphorism perhaps tells us less about the military mind than it does about human nature in general. Experience inevitably shapes one’s outlook, and the mind’s range of perceptions narrows when focused intently on a particular problem.
This thought occurred after scanning recent editions of the Valley News, which reported proposals for a 42-apartment affordable housing project in White River Junction; a 162-apartment development off Route 4 in Enfield; and a 196-unit apartment complex off Mechanic Street in Lebanon, nearby a 152-unit project across from Colburn Park that received approval in June.
Certainly, the battle to alleviate the Upper Valley’s housing crisis is far from over; experts say the region needs to add thousands of new housing units to keep up with demand. That will continue to be the highest priority for years to come. But the projects cited above and several others recently completed or in the regulatory pipeline do suggest that the tide may be turning in a favorable direction.
If so, now is the time for planners, elected officials and ordinary residents to start thinking in a systematic fashion about how the presence of thousands of newcomers will alter their communities and whether adequate physical, commercial and social infrastructure exists to accommodate them. For instance, the Enfield project, if built, could house an estimated 500 people, a 10% increase from the town’s current population of 4,500. “That’s a substantial increase to our town,” said Selectboard member Kate Plumley Stewart, which struck us as a bit of an understatement. The issue is not only one of physical infrastructure — water, sewer, broadband — but also the impact of newcomers on town commerce and amenities.
Lebanon City Councilor Karen Liot Hill framed the issue succinctly during a recent meeting the council held with the Hartford Selectboard to discuss housing initiatives. “One of the things that concerns me about housing,” Liot Hill said, “is how to increase the number of units in a sustainable way, for all different types of income levels, while maintaining the quality of life and the characteristics that people love about our community.” In this she echoed fears voiced by some residents that the apartment complex near Colburn Park would alter the “small-town” ambiance of Lebanon that they treasure.
Such fears are not unfounded, and the people who express them should not be dismissed merely as NIMBYs. The reality is that the Upper Valley’s urgent need for housing for people of all incomes and circumstances cannot be met without increasing the traditional density of typical New England communities. And that inevitably means that the character of those communities will be altered to some extent. The question is whether whatever is lost in the transition can be minimized or offset by changes of a positive nature that new residents can produce — via diversity, charitable volunteering, economic development, and civic and political engagement.
The region’s aging demographics are well documented, and have long been a source of concern. A relatively rapid increase in available, affordable housing could slow, if not reverse, that trend, reinvigorating institutions such as the public schools, which have suffered declining enrollment for years. But unless thoughtfully planned for, a spate of new housing could also create its own set of problems, for example, by overtaxing existing municipal infrastructure such as roads or producing a spike in enrollments after schools have spent years shrinking their physical footprint. The time to be thinking about these potential issues is now, even while the need to create new housing remains paramount.