Whose boots on the ground?
When the war on Iran began about three weeks ago, there was a striking contrast between the opinions of people in the US and in Israel. Polls in the US showed support for the operation hovering around 30-40%, meanwhile, the picture was very different in Israel. According to the Israeli Democracy Institute, 93% of Jewish Israelis and 26% of Arab Israelis showed support. Given that Israelis were twice as likely to support the operation, it is surprising that it is American marines, 5,000 to be specific, not Israelis, who have been deployed to the region. Last Thursday, Netanyahu told the foreign press corps that a ground offensive would be imperative for regime change in Iran.
So will Israel’s military be fighting alongside their American allies? We should consider the Israeli military is currently engaged in an aerial siege and ground invasion of Lebanon with the ambitions of expanding Israel’s territory to encompass about 20% of Lebanon. Several Israeli media outlets reported that up to 450,000 Israeli reservists (a large fraction of a military with around 700,000 personnel) may be mobilized for the ground invasion. The Defense Minister, Israel Katz, says Israel will flatten homes in Lebanese border villages “in line with the model we applied in Gaza”. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports that a thousand Lebanese have been killed in Israel’s current operation, with 20% of the being women and children, and a million people have been displaced from their homes.
But could Israel nevertheless wrap up its operation in Lebanon to fight with American allies in Iran? Perhaps we can learn from history. Israelis overwhelmingly supported regime change in Iraq. As with Iran, Netanyahu told American politicians that Iraq would imminently possess weapons of mass destruction. And like Iran, Iraq was a thorn in the side of Israel: supporting Palestinian armed groups and even launching missiles at Israel during the Gulf War. Israel did not send any ground troops to support regime change in Iraq, and given their past precedent and current entanglements, they are unlikely to provide ground troops for the regime change in Iran.