Yes, another opinion piece about the cost of housing, education and healthcare. I’ll skip a lengthy lead-up, making the case that all 3 are demonstrably off the rails, because I think that’s almost universally acknowledged by now. So how did we get here and how do we get back to seeing and feeling affordability and value? The vitality of the state depends on it.

We got here because the frameworks for delivering and financing education and healthcare have a structural lack of accountability and misaligned incentives that have enabled and even encouraged cost escalation. Complexity and lack of transparency in these frameworks contribute to our struggle to even get 20% of voters to weigh in on school budgets, and why most Vermonters do not know the true cost of their healthcare and its drivers. Tweaks or modifications will not fix the problem, nor will more money, in fact they will only enable more of the same.  More and more Vermonters of all political persuasions recognize that structural reform is necessary to get back on track.

So, is the stage finally set for the bold reform we need? Maybe.  For some, the lack of guaranteed outcomes in reform proposals stands in the way. Making huge policy changes is difficult when there is so much at stake and not everything can be known.  When the status quo guarantees bad outcomes and continued harm, as it does in our big 3 affordability issues right now, we can’t ignore that in our decision making, yet it appears year after year we do.

We are afraid of losing Vermont’s character, so we avoid bold permit reform to enable responsible home construction. Meanwhile homelessness increases, jobs go unfilled, and a family’s dream of homeownership waits another year, or they move out of state.

We are afraid that healthcare reforms could impact equity, access or quality of care.  Meanwhile, this year thousands more Vermonters will be forced to forgo care and go uninsured due to the price of insurance, and businesses, schools and nonprofits will continue to watch more of their budget going to healthcare.

We are afraid of the impacts on local control, small schools and teachers if we implement Act 73 reforms. Meanwhile double-digit property tax increases compound the housing problem, the education fund demands more state revenue while educating fewer kids and seeing declining quality in our schools.

I’m not saying we should jump without a parachute. It is critical to be skeptical and know the risks. But we have to apply that same level of skepticism and scrutiny to the status quo. Failing to do so is a decision-making bias against change that we all suffer from and have to overcome. J.F.K. succinctly addressed it in a different policy arena in 1961:

“There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than the long-range risks of comfortable inaction.”

“Win-win” policies are few and far between, all transformational policies come with uncertainty. The governor and legislators across the aisle have supported bold proposals to address our big 3 challenges. Some will look for yet more revenue to treat the symptoms and not the root cause, while others will want guarantees of success before moving forward. Unfortunately, there is only one guarantee in housing, education and healthcare right now, more of the same cost escalation and quality decline if we choose “comfortable inaction.”

There are well thought out solutions on the table, whether you are a voter, bureaucrat or elected official, make your voice heard and give change a fair chance.

Kaj Samsom is commissioner of the Vermont Department of Financial Regulation.