Coffee has been among the worst-performing commodities in the past few years as the world became awash with beans, and there are few signs of a meaningful rebound any time soon.
With arabica languishing near a 13-year low and robusta futures also performing poorly, there are concerns that the industryโs stability is under threat. Hereโs a look at whoโs winning and losing from the rout, from speculators to coffee-shop customers.
โThere will be some good money made by large roasters,โ said Jeffrey Young at consultant Allegra Strategies. Still, the benefit may be limited. For example, roaster Jacobs Douwe Egberts indicated that itโs passing savings onto its customers.
โCoffee represents a very small cost of all the costs of running a coffee shop,โ he said. Rents and equipment have gone up in price, while other ingredients and currency movements also impact the cost of a cup of coffee.
Still, some food outlets are using the rout as an opportunity to lock in purchases at low prices, said Marcus Swift, commercial director at coffee roaster UCC Coffee U.K. Ltd., which supplies McDonaldโs and Greggs.
Money managers are betting that prices will fall further still. Their net-short position is at a six-month high, the latest U.S. government data show. Arabica futures are down 7.8 percent this year at 93.90 cents a pound in New York.
Growers in Vietnam, a key robusta producer, have been hoarding beans while they wait for prices to improve, according to shipper Intimex Group. In Honduras, low prices are preventing growers from harvesting all their crop because they canโt pay pickers or cover the cost of input such as fertilizers, according to the National Association of Coffee Exporters.
The โreal victimโ is the coffee farmer, Young said.
