A University of New Hampshire poll for the 2028 New Hampshire presidential primary shows New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez heading the field of prospective Democratic candidates and Vice President JD Vance leading on the Republican side.
The poll of 648 likely Democratic primary voters released last week showed 22% support for Ocasio-Cortez, 21% for former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and 9% for U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona.
“Ocasio-Cortez draws much of her support from self-described socialists and progressives, while support for Buttigieg spreads about evenly among progressives, liberals and moderates,” a report published with the poll said.
While the poll offers a snapshot of public opinion, plenty can change in the next year and a half, not least of which is the impact of the primary itself.
State law requires that New Hampshire hold the first-in-the-nation primary, but a panel of the Democratic National Committee voted on Friday to give the distinction to South Carolina.
The decision, which has not yet been ratified by the full DNC, triggered outrage from New Hampshire Democrats and Republicans alike.
“The DNC sucks!” N.H. Rep. Nicholas Germana, D-Keene, said in a post on social media.
New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley also criticized the DNC, saying “party insiders have learned nothing from 2024.”
In the 2024 presidential election, the DNC broke with longstanding tradition and selected South Carolina for the first primary instead of New Hampshire.
The Granite State still held its early primary, which then-President Joe Biden won via a write-in vote, but the contest essentially didn’t count because the national Democratic Party had not sanctioned it.
Instead, the party held a small primary in April 2024 to ensure New Hampshire’s delegates could be seated at the Democratic National Convention.
Ultimately, Biden dropped out of the race after a disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump, who ended up defeating former Vice President Kamala Harris in the general election.
Buckley said in an emailed statement last week that New Hampshire has a proven track record of testing candidates “with a rigorous, fair, and efficient process.”
On Monday, he had another statement.
“We’ve already heard from a number of potential candidates who plan to campaign here, and we expect that to continue,” he said.
“Our focus remains on ensuring candidates have the opportunity to come here and engage directly with Granite Staters, and we’ll keep working to protect our state’s unique role in the presidential nominating process.”
Republican N.H. Gov. Kelly Ayotte said she supports N.H. Secretary of State David Scanlan upholding the state law that puts the Granite State’s primary first.
“We will not back down from defending New Hampshire’s place in history, and I look forward to hosting the first primaries for both parties in 2028,” she said.
DNC members have said it makes sense for South Carolina to go first because it has a more diverse population than New Hampshire.
Supporters of New Hampshire having the nation’s first presidential primary point out that it’s easier for candidates to connect directly with voters in a small state and build grassroots campaigns.
Under the Democratic presidential primary schedule drawn up by the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, South Carolina would go first on Jan. 22, 2028, followed by Nevada on Feb. 1 and New Hampshire on Feb. 8.
These articles are being shared by partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. For more information, visit collaborativenh.org.