In this Aug. 22, 2018 photo, April Box poses for a photo at her home in Spokane, Wash. Box is a healthcare advocate and runs the website www.hip-help.com to help guide people through major surgeries and other aspects of the healthcare system. Millions of people covered under the Affordable Care Act will see only modest premium increases next year, and some will get a price cut. That’s the conclusion from an exclusive analysis of the besieged but resilient program that still divides voters heading into this year's midterm elections. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
In this Aug. 22, 2018 photo, April Box poses for a photo at her home in Spokane, Wash. Box is a healthcare advocate and runs the website www.hip-help.com to help guide people through major surgeries and other aspects of the healthcare system. Millions of people covered under the Affordable Care Act will see only modest premium increases next year, and some will get a price cut. That’s the conclusion from an exclusive analysis of the besieged but resilient program that still divides voters heading into this year's midterm elections. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren) Credit: Ted S. Warren

Washington — Millions of people covered under the Affordable Care Act will see only modest premium increases next year, and some will get price cuts. That’s the conclusion from an exclusive analysis of the besieged but resilient program, which still sparks deep divisions heading into this year’s midterm elections.

The Associated Press and the consulting firm Avalere Health crunched available state data and found that “Obamacare’s” health insurance marketplaces seem to be stabilizing after two years of sharp premium hikes. And the exodus of insurers from the program has halted, even reversed somewhat, with more consumer choices for 2019.

The analysis found a 3.6 percent average increase in proposed or approved premiums across 47 states and Washington, D.C., for next year. This year the average increase nationally was about 30 percent. The average total premium for an individual covered under the health law is now close to $600 a month before subsidies.

For next year, premiums are expected either to drop or increase by less than 10 percent in 41 states with about 9 million customers. Eleven of those states are expected to see a drop in average premiums. In six other states, plus Washington, D.C., premiums are projected to rise between 10 percent and 18 percent.

Insurers also are starting to come back. Nineteen states will either see new insurers enter or current ones expand into more areas. There are no bare counties lacking a willing insurer.

Even so, Chris Sloan, an Avalere director, saod, “This is still a market that’s unaffordable for many people who aren’t eligible for subsidies.”

Nearly 9 in 10 ACA customers get government subsidies based on income, shielding most from premium increases. But people with higher incomes, who don’t qualify for financial aid, have dropped out in droves.

It’s too early to say if the ACA’s turnabout will be fleeting or a more permanent shift. Either way, next year’s numbers are at odds with the political rhetoric around the ACA, still heated even after President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans failed to repeal the law last year.

Trump regularly calls “Obamacare” a “disaster” and time again has declared it “dead.” The GOP tax-cut bill repealed the ACA requirement that Americans have health insurance or risk fines, effective next year. But other key elements remain, including subsidies and protection for people with pre-existing conditions.