The number of Canadian tourists crossing into Vermont appears to have increased this summer, compared to last year, but not enough to have Upper Valley businesses breathing a sigh of relief. 

“We’re still hearing that visitorship from Canada is way, way, way, way down,” said Havah Armstrong Walther, executive director of the Hartford Area Chamber of Commerce, which manages the visitors center at Quechee Gorge State Park.  

More Canadians visited this summer than last, but the numbers have not rebounded to their typical levels after a sharp decline in 2025. Credit card spending by Canadians in Vermont was up 26% in June (the most recent available data), compared with June 2025, according to the state.

The Canadian government found that the number of Canadians returning from visits to the U.S. rose 5% that month, compared with June 2025. However, last year, Canadians’ credit card spending was down 47% compared with 2024 — driven largely by tariff talks and political tensions. 

While the increase this summer was welcome, it hasn’t made up for previous declines, and business owners are unsure how the latest round of political tensions with neighbors to the north may affect tourism, especially as the busy foliage season approaches. 

“I wouldn’t say anyone is making any bold and bright predictions,” said Mike Somers, president and CEO of the New Hampshire Lodging and Restaurant Association.

A modest increase, for some businesses

During a typical summer, Upper Valley businesses see a steady stream of tourists from Quebec and Ottawa. Last year, those license plates were notably absent from parking lots and interstates, but this summer businesses noticed them returning slowly. 

“This year it seems like we’ve had a pretty good assortment of people coming down from Canada,” said Alyssa Jarvis, who manages The Vermont Spot, a country store near Quechee. “This year compared to last year, I’ve seen it increase.”

Somers said that the restaurants and hotels in his organization have reported a similar trend. 

“[Canadians have] come back a little bit,” he said. “We’re seeing license plates on the highways from Quebec and other [provinces], but we’re not back to where we were a few years ago.”

However, not everyone has noticed the increase. At Billings Farm and Museum in Woodstock, Canadians aren’t a huge proportion of visitors, according to Executive Director Frances McLaughlin. However, their absence was noticeable this summer. 

“Our sense is it’s about on par with last year, which is down,” McLaughlin said. 

Armstrong Walther, of the Hartford Area Chamber of Commerce, said many businesses report their sales are down 10% or more due to the drop in Canadian tourism. 

“I have not heard about any rebound from Canadian visitors, which is a real shame because they were a huge part of visitorship in the Upper Valley,” she said, adding the change was particularly noticeable during the Quechee Balloon Festival in June. 

“That’s some place we definitely saw a lack,” Armstrong Walther said.

With the president once again engaged in tariff talks and political tensions, Upper Valley businesses are wary that the decline in Canadian visitors may continue. Last year, Canadian tariffs resulted in an almost immediate impact on tourism for some. 

“When the tariffs started, a lot of our local businesses felt the impact right away,” Armstrong Walther said.

Some businesses are speaking to Canadians directly. On Aug. 26, Steve Wright, general manager of Jay Peak Resort in Jay, Vermont, published an open letter to Canadian visitors, saying, “We dislike anything that keeps you from Us.”

“We’ll be here, as we always have been, when this particular tide turns,” he wrote. 

Great weather balances reduction

Despite the reduced number of Canadian tourists, many businesses say they’re doing better than they anticipated during the 2025 tourist season, according to Somers. At the beginning of the season, he heard many concerns about fuel prices and tensions at the Canadian border. However, the season turned out “better than expected,” he said.  

“We’ve been pleasantly surprised,” Somers said. “It’s not a blockbuster year, but folks seem to be doing OK.”

Some establishments are even reporting modest increases in revenue, of 3 to 4%, he added. 

Visits to the Quechee Gorge State Park visitors center are up about 15% compared with last year, according to Armstrong Walther. At Billings Farm and Museum, attendance at two Garden Day events in Aug. increased from 610 guests in 2025 to 800 this year, McLaughlin said. 

Most events haven’t had such a dramatic spike in attendance, McLaughlin added, but the farm has “seen an increase in families that are specifically doing a New England national park swing,” she said. 

Somers credits the copious sunshine with saving what might have been a disappointing tourist season. 

“The weather has been pretty great,” he said. “Spectacular.”

Now, local merchants are hoping they can once again count on Mother Nature helping them out into the fall. 

“Our fingers are crossed for a really beautiful foliage season,” McLaughlin said. “Foliage is an intense, short-lived part of the year, but a really important one … to local merchants.”