If you’ve spent any time online scrolling for random New Hampshire tidbits, you have undoubtedly encountered the Drunken Granite State Fallacy.
It crops up frequently in TikTok memes and Reddit discussions and Facebook posts and even the occasional news article — that esteemed publication, the New York Post, trotted it out recently — and goes something like this:
New Hampshire has the highest per-capita alcohol consumption of any state! The government says so!
It’s not just good clickbait but also a good example of Mark Twain’s adage about lies, damned lies and statistics. There is, indeed, legitimate data saying that more booze flows into the average consumer in New Hampshire than in any other state. Yet although the statistic is correct, the conclusion is a lie.
In fact, judging from state liquor commission data, we’re getting less boozy every year.
The catch, as you’ve probably guessed, is that the data grabbed for the quickie online post measures sales rather than local consumption. Border-hugging liquor stores in “tax-free New Hampshire” mean a lot of our wine and spirits go to folks from neighboring states, skewing our total.
This isn’t any secret to those who pay attention. The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse’s surveillance report, for example, puts us at No. 1 with a per-capita ethanol consumption in 2023 of 4.2 gallons of ethanol from all alcoholic beverages, about 80% higher than the national average. But the report is quick to add this:
“Many factors may result in inaccuracies of per capita alcohol consumption estimates. For instance, these estimates in some states may be inflated by such factors as cross-border sales to buyers from neighboring states (e.g., in New Hampshire) or tourist consumption of alcohol (e.g., in Nevada and Washington, D.C.). “
It also notes that the report’s official title is “Apparent Per Capita Alcohol Consumption,” with an emphasis on the word “apparent.”
This figure is not only potentially misleading, but it is shrinking.
The New Hampshire Liquor Commission doesn’t count gallons, whether converted to ethanol equivalent or otherwise, but it does count dollars that the state makes from its markups on spirits and wine, as well as from beer taxes. That figure has been trending down.
After a big post-COVID jump in fiscal year 2021 to $230.8 million in liquor and wine revenue plus $23.7 million in beer tax, the state’s tally has declined about 4% a year to $207 million in liquor sales and $12.5 million in beer tax last fiscal year.
It’s unclear whether this is a reflection of lower prices, declining sales efforts, changes in outlets or the well-documented overall decline in national alcohol consumption.
What is clear, though, is that you shouldn’t pay attention to any eye-catching conclusions in memes, about Granite State boozing or anything else. Mark Twain could have told you that.
