BARNARD — U.S.-China trade relations have been roiled this year by a tariff fight, and agriculture is one of the sectors of the economy that was thrown into disarray.
But revenue from agricultural exports to China has boomed this year in Vermont. In the first eight months of this year, the value of Vermont’s exports have increased by 78.3% compared with the same time frame in 2024, according to a report using USDA data from Franklin, Tenn.-based agriculture company Farm Flavor.
But this doesn’t mean Green Mountain maple syrup and CSA shares are be shipped to Beijing.
Almost all of the $2.7 million increase came from dairy products, more specifically whey, according to Farm Flavor content director Hannah Hill. Whey is a byproduct of cheese used for protein powder, baby formula, as a food-additive and in animal feed.
And Vermont is “on track to break all records for whey exports to China of anything in the last five years,” said Brendan Wilson, the CEO of Food Export Northeast, a Chicago-based nonprofit trade association.
On average, agricultural exports to China from the United States have fallen 54% compared to last year, according to Farm Flavor’s report.
Vermont is bucking that trend.
The largest Vermont exporter of whey to China is Agri-Mark, the largest dairy co-op in Vermont and owner of Cabot Cheese, said Scott Waterman, a spokesman for the Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food, and Markets.
The 78.3% increase could be attributed to increased whey prices in the international market, rather than an actual increase of product being shipped.
“A lot of the number of fluctuations around value are based on the value of the commodity, not necessarily the export volume,” Waterman said.
The increased revenue isn’t through any particular concerted effort as the co-op hasn’t been aiming to increase its whey production, said Paul Doton, a Barnard dairy farmer who also serves on the board of Agri-Mark.
The state’s small scale relative to the market means that price changes can make a big difference, percentage-wise.
“The amount of actual pounds of product in Vermont are minuscule compared to the rest of the country,” Doton said.
Smaller dairy farmers who are more focused on the price of milk still can benefit from the increase, even if indirectly.
“We want (the large milk companies) to be profitable so they keep buying our milk,” said Keith Sprague, co-owner of the 800 Holsteins at Sprague Farm in Brookfield, Vt. “So whatever they can do to get rid of a byproduct and get their profit up is good by me.”
Vermont makes up just about 3% of the country’s whey exports, Wilson said. The nonprofit he oversees has 12 “members” that are state departments of agriculture, including those of Vermont and New Hampshire.
The average price of dry whey has increased from $0.322 per pound at the beginning of 2024 to $0.558 at the beginning of this year.
Vermont’s export revenue from whey has fluctuated over the past few years, increasing especially this year. This is largely due to changing prices in whey, Wilson said.
In 2022, Vermont’s whey exports to China were $3.6 million, the next year $2.1 million, and in 2024 were $3.6 million. Through just the first nine months of this year, Vermont has exported $4.8 million worth of whey to China.
It’s still possible that Vermont could have increased its volume of whey shipped to China.
“It might just happen to be that a company or two in Vermont has been able to navigate (trade relations with China) a little bit more effectively or had a stronger partnership,” Wilson said.
Vermont and New Hampshire are among the five states to increase their agricultural exports to China this year, according to the report.
After Vermont, the second-highest percentage change was Michigan with a 14.7% increase, which was $11.3 million more than last year. The Farm Flavor reports said this was “driven by increases in soups and prepared foods.”
New Hampshire was third with 4.1% more revenue, or about $10,000, coming from agricultural exports to China, according to the report.
Other states have seen a decrease in exports to China, such as California’s hit of 56% — or $808 million — comparing this year’s first eight months to those of last year, according to the report. Most negatively impacted were tree nuts, which saw an 89% decrease in exports to China compared to last year.
Tariffs on goods between the U.S. and China have fluctuated this year between 10% and over 100% for both countries. Additionally, China imposed restrictions on crops such as soybeans and wheat earlier this year, resulting in states such as North Dakota seeing a decrease of 83% in agricultural exports to China.
Soybean exports from North Dakota to China were down 100% in the first eight months of 2024 compared to this year, according to the report.